Effects of military conflicts on civil aviation

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Civil aviation plays a key role for humankind, continually improving in safety and reliability. However, amid rising geopolitical tensions, the link between the civil and military sectors remains one of the industry's weak points. This thesis investigates how conflicts within the military sector affect air travel by analyzing aviation safety risks, economic impacts, and effects on human performance. The research studies cases of KE007, MH17, PS752, and AZAL Flight J2-8243 to illustrate the various threats arising from military interference. Operational restrictions and subsequent economic impact simulation were used to quantify the cost effects on airline profitability associated with conflict-related airspace closures and rerouting. A flight-simulator experiment based on Cognitive Load Theory (CLT) was used to explore how GNSS interference may affect pilot workload. For additional insight from a pilot who experienced these challenges, a semi-structured interview was conducted with a former captain at Ukraine International Airlines. The results indicate that even after several improvement steps, a gap remains between the military and civil sectors, with more threats appearing nowadays, including modern warfare such as GNSS interference, and the increasing use of military drones. Using the achieved data helps draw recommendations on organization, technology, and training. In particular, key recommendations are to establish a centralized authority for information sharing to close communication gaps between military and civil groups, install enhanced aircraft equipment, and incorporate GNSS interference scenarios into regular simulator training. Given all the above, one thing is important: aviation regulators and governments have to give enough attention to air transport disruptions arising from global conflicts and ought to treat this as a more substantial risk, addressing it effectively and in a timely manner.

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