A Study on the Financial Feasibility of Overseas Chinese Catering Entrepreneurship Based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Abstract

With the in-depth extension of the "Belt and Road" Initiative to the Central and Eastern European region, Chinese-funded enterprises have accelerated their landing in the EU market, which has also brought deterministic segmented demand for overseas Chinese catering entrepreneurship. However, for individual entrepreneurs with limited overseas operation experience and start-up capital, existing valuation tools are difficult to adapt to the characteristics of short cycle and high uncertainty of overseas micro catering projects, and there is a lack of implementable quantitative decision-making reference system. This study takes the Chinese-funded public works supporting group meal market in Debrecen, Hungary as the research object. Aiming at the static limitations of the traditional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method, it introduces the real option theory to build a three-stage dynamic decision analysis framework, takes Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) as the core indicators, and designs a Minimum Viable Product (MVP) model of "pure B2B virtual kitchen + second-hand equipment reuse + mechanized auxiliary cooking". The financial calculation results show that the initial investment of this model is only 35,000 euros, which is 45% of the traditional Chinese food entrepreneurship model; under the baseline scenario, the dynamic investment payback period is 3.4 months, the internal rate of return is 128%, and the marginal contribution rate exceeds 60%; the results of 5000 Monte Carlo simulations show that the probability of the project obtaining positive NPV is 97.6%, which has strong economic feasibility and anti-risk ability. This study not only corrects the adaptability of the traditional DCF model in the valuation of micro entrepreneurship projects, but also provides a replicable operation framework and risk prevention and control scheme for low-cost catering entrepreneurship of overseas Chinese.