Szerző szerinti böngészés "Chaiboonsri , Chukiat"

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    Forecasting with X-12-ARIMA: International tourist arrivals to India and Thailand
    (2009-05-30) Balogh , Péter; Kovács , Sándor; Chaiboonsri , Chukiat; Chaitip, Prasert
    Forecasting is an essential analytical tool in tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment and this method was developed by the Census Bureau in the United States. It has been continually improved since the 1960s, and it is used by many statistics agencies and central banks. The secondary data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to India for 2007-2010 and also these data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to Thailand for 2006-2010. From these period the results confirm that the best forecasting method based on the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment is X-12-ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1), X-12-ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) and X-12-ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1) for India and the best forecasting method based on this method is X-12-ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) and X-12-ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1) for Thailand. Furthermore this method predict that international tourism arrivals to India for 2007–2010 will growth at a positive rate as same as in this during period the number of international tourists arrival to India will be 5,079,651 million, 5,652,180 million, 6,224,480 million and 6,796,890 million, respectively. Also this method predict that international tourism arrivals to Thailand for 2006-2010 will growth at a positive rate as same as in this during period the number of international tourists arrival to Thailand will be 12,211,033 million, 12,699,532 million, 13,187,591 million, 13,674,669 million and 14,161,998 million, respectively. If these results can be generalized for future year, then it suggests that both the India government sector and the Thailand government sector also the private tourism industry sector of these country should prepare to receive increasing numbers of international tourist arrivals both to India and Thailand in this period.
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    On tests for long memory process behavior of international tourism market: Thailand and India
    (2011-12-31) Sriboonchitta, Songsak; Chaitip, Prasert; Balogh , Péter; Kovács , Sándor; Chaiboonsri , Chukiat
    In our research we examine the behaviour of both Thailand’s and India’s international tourism market by using long-memory analysis. The international tourism market of Thailand combined with seven groups such as East Asia, Europe, The Americas, South Asia, Oceania, Middle East and Africa. Similarly, the international tourism market of India combined with nine countries: USA, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Japan, Malaysia, Australia and Sri Lanka. Moreover, three statistical tests for long-memory process such as R/S test, Modified R/S test and GPH-test are employed to study these markets. The empirical findings in general provide more support for long memory process in international tourism market of Thailand and evidence for short-term dependence in international tourism market of India. Therefore, the policy makers of each country should understand the behaviour of long memory process in international tourism market before launching any stimulating campaign to this industry.