Szerző szerinti böngészés "MCHANI, SIBULELE"

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    Estimating the Impact of North-South and South-South Regional Trade Agreements on South African bilateral trade
    (2024-03-20) MCHANI, SIBULELE
    Based on the gravity model, this paper aimed to evaluate the impact of three regional trade agreements on South Africa’s bilateral trade with thirty-eight countries. Ordinary least squares (OLS) was employed as an estimator of the gravity model. The results demonstrate that the SACU-MERCOSUR preferential trade agreement and EU-SADC free trade agreement are positive and statistically significant. While the SACU-EFTA free trade agreement increases trade intensity by 2.4-fold, the EU-SADC free trade agreement enhances it 2.6-fold. In other words, the participation of South Africa and a respective trade partner in the SACU-EFTA trade agreement improve their bilateral trade by 2.4-fold, while their membership in the EU-SADC free trade agreement raises bilateral trade by 2.6-fold.
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    impact of regional trade agreements on bilateral trade flows: A Systemic Literature Review
    (2022-12-02) MCHANI, SIBULELE
    This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the impact of regional trade agreements on trade. The empirical literature is arranged based on the econometric methods used to estimate the gravity model. Advantages and disadvantages of each method were highlighted. Papers covering RTAs from Africa, Asia, the Americas, and Europe were reviewed to gain a more representative understanding. The covered empirical literature suggests that the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator is more reliable than OLS in estimating gravity models, as it can deal with zero trade flows. The Fixed Effects (FE) approach produces more consistent estimates than the Random Effects (RE) approach when quantifying the effects of RTAs. This is because it allows one to control for the unobserved time-invariant variables. Surprisingly, the covered literature suggests that a great majority of African RTAs generated trade, regardless of the method of estimation used. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: F13, F15