New trends in the food of animal origin: drivers, new paths and future

Abstract

This thesis investigates the ongoing transformation of the global meat industry, a sector at a critical juncture due to mounting environmental, health, and ethical pressures. The conventional, intensive production model is characterized by significant negative externalities, creating an economic imperative for systemic change. This research analyzes the industry's evolution through a "dual-track" conceptual framework. This framework examines two distinct but coexisting future paths: an intra-systemic "sustainable upgrade" path and an extra-systemic "alternative protein competition" path. The objectives are to identify the drivers of this transformation, evaluate the economic logic and market potential of each track, and assess the enabling roles of technology and policy. The study employs a qualitative, secondary data analysis approach, synthesizing academic literature, industry reports, and policy documents. This is supplemented by insights from a cross-cultural consumer survey conducted in Hungary and China. The core analytical method involves applying established economic theories. These include externality theory, information asymmetry, signaling theory, and disruptive innovation theory to interpret the empirical evidence. The methodology also incorporates comparative analysis of case studies, such as "Shanhei Pig" and "Beyond Meat", and international policy landscapes in the EU, US, and China. The research yields four principal findings. First, the industry's transformation is an economic inevitability driven by the progressive internalization of its externalities. Second, the response is unfolding along the "dual-track". The sustainable path creates a viable, trust-based niche market but faces scalability limits. The alternative protein path has disruptive potential but is constrained by its current inferiority in taste and price. Third, technology acts as a crucial enabler for both tracks, enhancing efficiency and trust for the former and driving product innovation for the latter. Fourth, policy functions as a powerful, context-dependent steering mechanism, with different global powers adopting distinct "push" or "pull" strategies. Based on these findings, the thesis concludes that the industry's future will be defined by the dynamic interplay between these two paths. A dual-pronged strategy is recommended for incumbent producers, involving both investment in premium, certified products and diversification into alternative proteins. For policymakers, a balanced "push-pull" portfolio, combining regulations to internalize costs with R&D support for innovation, is proposed as the most effective approach. Investors are advised to recognize the different risk-return profiles of each track, viewing the sustainable path as a brand-focused investment and the alternative path as a high-risk, technology-focused venture.