Forecasting with X-12-ARIMA: International tourist arrivals to India and Thailand

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dc.creatorBalogh , Péter
dc.creatorKovács , Sándor
dc.creatorChaiboonsri , Chukiat
dc.creatorChaitip, Prasert
dc.date2009-05-30
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-28T11:16:32Z
dc.date.available2021-06-28T11:16:32Z
dc.descriptionForecasting is an essential analytical tool in tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment and this method was developed by the Census Bureau in the United States. It has been continually improved since the 1960s, and it is used by many statistics agencies and central banks. The secondary data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to India for 2007-2010 and also these data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to Thailand for 2006-2010. From these period the results confirm that the best forecasting method based on the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment is X-12-ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1), X-12-ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) and X-12-ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1) for India and the best forecasting method based on this method is X-12-ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) and X-12-ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1) for Thailand. Furthermore this method predict that international tourism arrivals to India for 2007–2010 will growth at a positive rate as same as in this during period the number of international tourists arrival to India will be 5,079,651 million, 5,652,180 million, 6,224,480 million and 6,796,890 million, respectively. Also this method predict that international tourism arrivals to Thailand for 2006-2010 will growth at a positive rate as same as in this during period the number of international tourists arrival to Thailand will be 12,211,033 million, 12,699,532 million, 13,187,591 million, 13,674,669 million and 14,161,998 million, respectively. If these results can be generalized for future year, then it suggests that both the India government sector and the Thailand government sector also the private tourism industry sector of these country should prepare to receive increasing numbers of international tourist arrivals both to India and Thailand in this period.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://ojs.lib.unideb.hu/apstract/article/view/7397
dc.identifier10.19041/APSTRACT/2009/1-2/5
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2437/317878
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherUniversity of Debrecen, Faculty of Economics and Business
dc.relationhttps://ojs.lib.unideb.hu/apstract/article/view/7397/6792
dc.rightsCopyright (c) 2009 University of Debrecen, Faculty of Economics and Business, Hungary
dc.sourceApplied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce; Vol. 3 No. 1-2 (2009); 43-61
dc.source1789-7874
dc.source1789-221X
dc.subjectIndia
dc.subjectThailand
dc.subjectinternational tourism
dc.subjectX-12-ARIMA
dc.subjectthe best forecasting methods
dc.titleForecasting with X-12-ARIMA: International tourist arrivals to India and Thailand
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.typePeer-reviewed Article
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APSTRACT - Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce