A Spatial and Technical Assessment of Decentralized Solar Energy Adoption and Its Impact on Grid Imports Potential in Kimberley, Northern Cape

Abstract

This study evaluated the solar energy potential of three Kimberley neighbourhoods, the CBD, Royldene, and Galeshewe, using GIS-based spatial analysis across three technologies: rooftop PV, solar water heaters, and community-scale PV. Of 2,617 buildings analysed, 67.9% were deemed suitable for solar installation, with Royldene leading at 86.8% suitability and Galeshewe lowest at 57.1% due to smaller rooftop sizes. The combined annual energy output across all technologies totals 215 GWh/year, with rooftop PV contributing 95.1 GWh, community PV 113 GWh, and SWH 6.5 GWh in thermal savings, representing a potential 39% reduction in Kimberley's grid imports. The three technologies proved strongly complementary: community PV bridges equity gaps in underserved townships, rooftop PV enables household-level generation, and SWH delivers the highest efficiency for water heating specifically. Crucially, the study finds that the barriers to deployment are not technical but institutional, as the solar resource is abundant, the technologies are mature, and spatial data already exists. What remains needed is city-wide suitability mapping, disaggregated energy monitoring, dedicated funding for township community PV, and a municipal solar strategy that places energy equity at the heart of urban planning.