Boosting Kenyan tea trade within Africa: A Gravity Model Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the factors influencing Kenyan tea exports using the gravity model of international trade, with a special focus on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). By examining trade data between Kenya and 89 countries, it employs OLS and PPML methods to handle data issues like zero trade flows and heteroskedasticity. The results show that AfCFTA membership significantly increases Kenyan tea exports by 153% under OLS and 158.9% under PPML, highlighting the agreement’s strong impact. The study also finds PPML to be a more robust method and calls for Kenya to further engage with AfCFTA while improving infrastructure and reducing non-tariff barriers