Section 301 Tariffs and U.S. Import Price Dynamics: A Phase-Based Analysis of Aggregate and Sectoral Patterns

Abstract

This thesis examines the association between the sequential implementation of U.S. Section 301 tariffs and U.S. import-price dynamics for goods originating from China between January 2016 and February 2020. Using monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics import-price indices for aggregate China-origin imports (CHNTOT) and computer and electronic products (COCHNZ334), the study estimates phase-based ordinary least squares regressions with Newey–West standard errors, controlling for exchange-rate and oil-price movements. The Section 301 episode is operationalised through five mutually exclusive tariff regimes, consisting of one pre-tariff baseline and four active tariff phases. Aggregate duty-exclusive import-price growth weakened significantly during the early and middle tariff phases, consistent with possible markup compression under imperfect competition. The consumer electronics sector exhibited a statistically significant negative association only in the initial phase, suggesting more limited adjustment in supply-chain-dependent industries. Because the underlying indices are duty-exclusive, the findings characterise net border-price adjustment rather than tariff-inclusive landed-cost pass-through.