More likes, more trouble; the panic-inducing and disruptive role of social media in bank runs

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Bank runs represent one of the most destabilizing events that can occur in a financial system. They are a phenomenon that happens when a large number of depositors concomitantly withdraw their funds. There are numerous things that can trigger a bank run, but in general, depositors withdraw because they fear that their bank will become insolvent. When a bank run occurs, the panic can spread to other institutions as well, causing a bank run contagion. Since banks are deeply embedded in the economy, a bank-run contagion can cause a widespread economic crisis. Throughout the thesis, numerous well-known game theory models will be analyzed. The relevance of the topic is underlined by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023, which was the second-biggest bank run in the history of the United States. I conducted a comprehensive analysis of the underlying factors that caused the unprecedented speed and size of the failure. The contagion effects after the fall of SVB are analyzed in the U.S. banking system and on a global scale as well. The thesis highlights the importance of social media as a new layer of risk for banks. Social media revolutionized communication among depositors, which can substantially increase the likelihood of bank runs. Therefore, it is essential for regulators to assess the risks technological improvements hold. I also examine how social networks can affect depositors through a game theory model by Kiss et al. (2014). In my primary research, I extended this model and conducted a laboratory experiment with external information stimuli in the form of social media posts to determine whether social media can affect the likelihood of bank runs. The social media posts had different characteristics, and they were trying to simulate the most common types of posts depositors can see during financial crises. In my thesis, I assessed how the credibility of the posts and the number of views, likes, and comments can influence the depositors’ behavior. After analyzing the data, I concluded that the posts, which were written in a formal tone by experts, significantly increased the likelihood of bank runs. The goal of the thesis is to raise awareness of social media’s disruptive role in the context of bank runs. The thesis examines the advantages and disadvantages of a number of strategies that can prevent bank runs, such as deposit insurance, suspension of convertibility, education, and regulation.

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bank run, game theory, social media, Silicon Valley Bank
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