Spatial and Spatio-temporal Studies on Pathogens

Absztrakt

In this dissertation I collected some of my works in connection with veterinary spatial, spatiotemporal epidemiology. With our collegues we have been working on the epidemiology of rabies of red foxes in Hungary. From this work one paper was published until now, in which we have analysed the temporal patterns of disease occurence. In spatial epidemiology of rabies we had a few conference presentations, from these some interesting results are included in this dissertation. We had some interesting experiences using Moran’s I method in analyses of spatial clustering of rabies cases. These prompted us to deal with the null distribution of the test statistic. In spatial epidemiology the usage of the Bayesian methods is increasing. In rabies epidemiology we used Bayesian models as well. To make easier the spatial Bayesian modelling I am developing a tool for preparation of data and maps to help the user of GeoBUGS. At the end of the nineties by dIstván Medveczky I was invited into the analysis of the results of countrywide Aujeszky’s disease eradication program. At county level we published an evironmental association paper from this disease. Since 2007 I have been working on studying the possible associations of animal health and climate change. In this work we are working on the heat stress modelling of cattle based on observed meteorological data and climate scenarios. Based on climate and other environmental (e.g. landcover) datasets researchers can model environmental associations and/or predict spatial distribution of diseases. Due to climate change expectedly new vectorborne diseases may appear in temperate zone. For modelling the spatial pattern changes in disease distributions due to global changes we are studying the environmental similarity of different sites of Earth. In this work we try to find sites on the Globe where the climate in the past is close to the future climate in Hungary. Identifying similar areas we could predict for which pathogens will be suitable the climate of Hungary. For this modelling we need climate datasets. Some of that kind of datasets are available, but sometimes it is very difficult to use them. As a first step of this work I have developed a tool to make easier the usage of one of climate datasets (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research produced one).

Leírás
Kulcsszavak
spatial, térbeli
Forrás