Dynamic interaction between extreme climatic events and maize production in South Africa: comprehensive research on a regional scale

Abstract

The study sought to ascertain the effects of agricultural drought on South African maize production. Rainfall-based Standardized Precipitation Index is used at the 3-month (SPI-3) and 6-month (SPI-6) scales to assess the drought trends over a 30-year period (1993-2022) and Standardized Yield Residual Series (SYRS), which was associated with SPI-3 and SPI-6 was calculated to provide the country's real yield loss intensity and percentage at the provincial level. To evaluate the drought resilience of maize crop on a provincial level ,the Crop-Drought Resilience Factor is calculated for the driest year of the crop's growing season. Analysis reveals dynamic shifts in agricultural drought occurrences and its impact on maize yield over 30 years.