Time-Series with Multiple Seasonal Periods: Modeling and Forecasting
Dátum
Szerzők
Folyóirat címe
Folyóirat ISSN
Kötet címe (évfolyam száma)
Kiadó
Absztrakt
This dissertation addresses trends in the death of COVID-19 in Hungary and energy consumption patterns in Brazil, with the objective of modeling and forecasting time-series data using sophisticated statistical methodologies. Initially, a unified theoretical framework was established by deriving the state space representations for core time series models (AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA, HW). Secondly, we utilized World Health Organization data from 2020 to 2021 and employed a Seasonal ARIMA model to forecast daily death from COVID-19 in Hungary. The fitted SARIMA model